Blue will not be penalized. Red has the options and room to luff or to bear away. Therefore we can assume that Blue's tack does not infringe rule 13 or rule 15. (The film will not show this clearly). Rule 18.3(a) states that Blue must not cause Red to sail above close-hauled here. But Blue does not cause Red to sail above close-hauled because there is enough space for Red to pass to leeward (between Blue and the mark). Blue does not break rule 18.3. (Source: ISAF-Seminar, Brighton 97)